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Post by Longshanks on May 2, 2020 13:48:56 GMT -5
I’m not on board with no snake. If there is no NFL season, then a snake draft is necessary to even it up. I don't think that idea is supportable frankly. The snake makes sense if the order is randomized to me, but if it's based on last years record to some degree then the snake makes way less sense imo. Then I’m not on board |
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Post by jscorr on May 2, 2020 23:16:03 GMT -5
Yeah, a 2021 snake draft option isn’t really feasible. We won’t know for months whether not not there will or won’t be a 2020 season, and we need to determine a contingency plan before this years draft since the trading of future draft picks is involved. If the 2020 season happens, we will use the traditional draft model, so our contingency plan for the 2021 TW draft needs to fit into that draft format as well.
On a side note, I’d be super interested to see how the NFL figures out a draft order for next year if there is no 2020 season. Also be kind of bizarre to have the 2021 NFL draft without having had a college football season.
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Post by nelittle on May 3, 2020 11:07:50 GMT -5
i'm on board with this idea if we start with 1 and do a 6 team sliding window.
starting at 24 gives the 24th slot a 40 percent chance of getting pick 19 but going the other way gives them a 1/6 chance of getting 19.
i went basically 8 straight years picking in the 20s so i don't think we should allow for that much upward mobility.
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Post by Longshanks on May 3, 2020 13:00:41 GMT -5
i'm on board with this idea if we start with 1 and do a 6 team sliding window. starting at 24 gives the 24th slot a 40 percent chance of getting pick 19 but going the other way gives them a 1/6 chance of getting 19. i went basically 8 straight years picking in the 20s so i don't think we should allow for that much upward mobility. The idea that teams don't move more than 8 spots from one year to another is false. Now I don't even think the 8 spot sliding scale is fair. I think if there is no NFL season, then it is a completely random snake draft.  |
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Post by stevethepict on May 4, 2020 9:16:28 GMT -5
It's an interesting hypothetical, but I'm not on board. First of all, I think we're going to have a full 2020 season, so that will determine the draft order for 2021. The second most likely scenario is that we have a partial 2020 season, which should also determine the 2021 draft order, unless it's a fragmented, incomplete season. Third, even if there's no practicable 2021 season, that decision is a long way off, and every effort will be made to have a 2020 season. Consequently, we don't need to make this decision for the league until we have more information about what actually happens in the NFL.
Finally, if there's no season, what has changed? Why wouldn't we just carry over the current draft order? Sure the teams with high picks would be at the top of the order twice, but I don't see that as more unfair than some random order. If the NFL season is canceled, the college season probably would be too, so we would have much less info about the next draft class, making those picks even more of a crapshoot.
We can continue to hash out the scenarios, but I don't think we should even vote on this until we're certain that they will not play a full season.
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Post by Longshanks on May 4, 2020 9:45:07 GMT -5
It's an interesting hypothetical, but I'm not on board. First of all, I think we're going to have a full 2020 season, so that will determine the draft order for 2021. The second most likely scenario is that we have a partial 2020 season, which should also determine the 2021 draft order, unless it's a fragmented, incomplete season. Third, even if there's no practicable 2021 season, that decision is a long way off, and every effort will be made to have a 2020 season. Consequently, we don't need to make this decision for the league until we have more information about what actually happens in the NFL. Finally, if there's no season, what has changed? Why wouldn't we just carry over the current draft order? Sure the teams with high picks would be at the top of the order twice, but I don't see that as more unfair than some random order. If the NFL season is canceled, the college season probably would be too, so we would have much less info about the next draft class, making those picks even more of a crapshoot. We can continue to hash out the scenarios, but I don't think we should even vote on this until we're certain that they will not play a full season. 2 major issues here. First, saying that someone getting the 1st overall pick 2 years in a row without a season in between is "fair" is incorrect. The teams that had the 1st pick each year finished with the 2nd, 10th, 19th, 23rd, and 2nd picks the following year. Never did a team get the 1st pick 2 years in a row and only 2 of the 5 previous seasons did they even get a top pick. And once, the team made it to the championship game the following year. Second, saying that we can just wait to decide this later is also incorrect. Changing the 2021 draft order effects trades this year especially during this years draft. The only way to wait on this issue, would be to suspend the trading of 2021 picks. |
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ibx
Full Member
Posts: 223
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Post by ibx on May 4, 2020 10:48:01 GMT -5
The one time when the team with the first pick made the championship is an outlier. You won't find that common. It's the year Def "tanked" and get Saquan.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 4, 2020 13:32:34 GMT -5
The one time when the team with the first pick made the championship is an outlier. You won't find that common. It's the year Def "tanked" and get Saquan. While this is definitely true I do think that we should find a medium ground based on the reasons above re: conducting the 2020 draft with questions looming over the value of 2021 picks. I happen to still think that the 2020.season is very likely to happen, but they just announced no overseas games this year. If that slope gets slippery it will benefit us to have thought about this now. I think the solution proposed by Poots on page 3, but done in batches of 6 teams, without snaking is the best solution to a problem that will never have a great one and I've been noodling this issue alone and with others for close to 2 weeks now. That said, I still dont know if that's right, but I need as much input and/or votes before deciding. rg |
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Post by Longshanks on May 4, 2020 13:54:40 GMT -5
What about keeping the order the same, but snaking the draft...
If the draft isn't snaked, then I think a range of 6 is too small (evident by the spreadsheet)... it should be 10... or 8 at a minimum.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 4, 2020 14:52:40 GMT -5
What about keeping the order the same, but snaking the draft... If the draft isn't snaked, then I think a range of 6 is too small (evident by the spreadsheet)... it should be 10... or 8 at a minimum. I disagree, and dont think that spreadsheet is as evidential as you think it is, but I would consider 8 or even 10 before a snake. rg |
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Post by Longshanks on May 4, 2020 15:09:28 GMT -5
It is about what everyone would consider... this has obviously changed since this vote was posted, so I think a new vote should be cast:
- same order with no snake
- same order with snake
- random order with snake
- random order with no snake
- semi-random with range of 6
- semi-random with range of 10
Then take the top 2 or 3 and revote until we get a majority.
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Post by nelittle on May 5, 2020 6:53:06 GMT -5
First, saying that someone getting the 1st overall pick 2 years in a row without a season in between is "fair" is incorrect. The teams that had the 1st pick each year finished with the 2nd, 10th, 19th, 23rd, and 2nd picks the following year. Never did a team get the 1st pick 2 years in a row and only 2 of the 5 previous seasons did they even get a top pick. And once, the team made it to the championship game the following year.
suspend the trading of 2021 picks.[/quote]
That guy was a tanking piece of nuts
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Post by The Dude on May 5, 2020 15:07:07 GMT -5
At this point, if we have a majority that agrees that the 2021 rookie draft contingency (only break glass in case of emergency) will be a standard draft (not snake) either using the same 2020 draft order (after placing new owners between picks 11-15) or each individual pick will be within some range of 6-10 of 2020 order , I think thats enough to proceed forward with the 2020 draft and we can work out the specific contingency later. I think you could argue that's enough certainty to allow trading of future picks as well. So maybe the move at this point is to put a vote forward on that broad approach to see if there's enough consensus and then proceed forward to figuring out the specifics, without keeping the draft or future picks hostage.
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Post by Your Mom on May 5, 2020 18:27:31 GMT -5
It's an interesting hypothetical, but I'm not on board. First of all, I think we're going to have a full 2020 season, so that will determine the draft order for 2021. The second most likely scenario is that we have a partial 2020 season, which should also determine the 2021 draft order, unless it's a fragmented, incomplete season. Third, even if there's no practicable 2021 season, that decision is a long way off, and every effort will be made to have a 2020 season. Consequently, we don't need to make this decision for the league until we have more information about what actually happens in the NFL. Finally, if there's no season, what has changed? Why wouldn't we just carry over the current draft order? Sure the teams with high picks would be at the top of the order twice, but I don't see that as more unfair than some random order. If the NFL season is canceled, the college season probably would be too, so we would have much less info about the next draft class, making those picks even more of a crapshoot. We can continue to hash out the scenarios, but I don't think we should even vote on this until we're certain that they will not play a full season. Totally agreed. |
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Post by Ryan G. on May 6, 2020 3:56:40 GMT -5
At this point, if we have a majority that agrees that the 2021 rookie draft contingency (only break glass in case of emergency) will be a standard draft (not snake) either using the same 2020 draft order (after placing new owners between picks 11-15) or each individual pick will be within some range of 6-10 of 2020 order , I think thats enough to proceed forward with the 2020 draft and we can work out the specific contingency later. I think you could argue that's enough certainty to allow trading of future picks as well. So maybe the move at this point is to put a vote forward on that broad approach to see if there's enough consensus and then proceed forward to figuring out the specifics, without keeping the draft or future picks hostage. I think this makes alot of sense. I will post an update to the league later today/tonight. rg |
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