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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 9:34:16 GMT -5
I agree that a random drawing is good, but I also like the idea of weighing it to how teams finished in 2019 like the NBA draft lottery. www.tankathon.com/pick_oddsSomething where a team can't drop lower than five spots over where they finished and a team that made the playoffs can't finish inside the spots occupied by those who didn't make the playoffs. I generally favor anything that doesn't multiply the complexity. I also think the projected outcomes for the teams in 2020 is as relevant to 2021 as 2019 finish. rg
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ibx
Full Member
Posts: 223
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Post by ibx on May 1, 2020 9:55:34 GMT -5
We know the combined records of the five teams their teams are made up of. Two decent and three bad teams. Take the combined record and slot them all based upon the average. Then bucket and/or do a percentage from there. It wouldn't be hard. If it comes to it, I volunteer to do the math. For both the new and existing owners, would the slotting be based on just last year's record, last 3/x year's records, projected record for this year, or something else? Just using last year's record to wall off teams seems limited to me. rg I'm ok with some modification to the formula, but just using last year's record is still more fair than a complete random draw.
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Post by djstolly on May 1, 2020 9:58:37 GMT -5
I agree with IBX. It's a sensible solution. I'm counting 3 people at least that like this idea, but I only see 1 vote in the "Other category". I would say that this is the only "other" that has been suggested. Please make sure to vote if you haven't. rg I understood option 2 to be IBX's solution. "Keep the 2020 Draft Order, figure out how to slot the 5 new owners." What was different?
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Post by Longshanks on May 1, 2020 10:03:04 GMT -5
I'm counting 3 people at least that like this idea, but I only see 1 vote in the "Other category". I would say that this is the only "other" that has been suggested. Please make sure to vote if you haven't. rg I understood option 2 to be IBX's solution. "Keep the 2020 Draft Order, figure out how to slot the 5 new owners." What was different? The difference would be that the 2020 draft made those teams better, but without a 2020 season, they wouldn’t drop any spots in the draft and would get the same high picks. I don’t mind keeping the same order as long as the draft is a snake draft.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 10:12:34 GMT -5
I'm counting 3 people at least that like this idea, but I only see 1 vote in the "Other category". I would say that this is the only "other" that has been suggested. Please make sure to vote if you haven't. rg I understood option 2 to be IBX's solution. "Keep the 2020 Draft Order, figure out how to slot the 5 new owners." What was different? ibx suggested putting 24 teams into buckets of 8 based on some existing criteria such as 2019 record or last 3 year's record, and randomly drawing within those buckets for picks for picks. I think. rg
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Post by djstolly on May 1, 2020 10:15:42 GMT -5
I understood option 2 to be IBX's solution. "Keep the 2020 Draft Order, figure out how to slot the 5 new owners." What was different? The difference would be that the 2020 draft made those teams better, but without a 2020 season, they wouldn’t drop any spots in the draft and would get the same high picks. I don’t mind keeping the same order as long as the draft is a snake draft. Got it. Draft order same as 2020, but just run as snake draft. So the first pick would then get the 48 and 49. In 2019 that would have been: 1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders, 48. TE Dawson Knox, Bills, 49. RB Benny Snell, Steelers. Which option is that to vote?
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Post by My Fn Luck on May 1, 2020 10:43:47 GMT -5
i am good with keeping the same (minus trades) and doing a snake.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 11:15:50 GMT -5
I understood option 2 to be IBX's solution. "Keep the 2020 Draft Order, figure out how to slot the 5 new owners." What was different? The difference would be that the 2020 draft made those teams better, but without a 2020 season, they wouldn’t drop any spots in the draft and would get the same high picks. I don’t mind keeping the same order as long as the draft is a snake draft. I dont think this is correct.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 11:16:28 GMT -5
The difference would be that the 2020 draft made those teams better, but without a 2020 season, they wouldn’t drop any spots in the draft and would get the same high picks. I don’t mind keeping the same order as long as the draft is a snake draft. Got it. Draft order same as 2020, but just run as snake draft. So the first pick would then get the 48 and 49. In 2019 that would have been: 1. RB Josh Jacobs, Raiders, 48. TE Dawson Knox, Bills, 49. RB Benny Snell, Steelers. Which option is that to vote? Again, I dont think this is what ibx suggested.
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Post by jscorr on May 1, 2020 12:19:47 GMT -5
I think a fully random draft is patently unfair. The strength of teams doesn't change that dramatically year over year, so if last year's winner draws the #1 overall, I think that's way too much of an imbalance. I'd do an NBA-style weighted lottery, giving the five new teams the weighted average of the five teams they were dispersed from. If that's too complicated, I'd use 2020 and slot the five new owners in the weighted average of the five teams they were dispersed from (in random order) i've been swayed towards this sort of argument. Completely random is crap. Maybe random within pods of 8 or something? I endorse this idea
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 18:27:03 GMT -5
We know the combined records of the five teams their teams are made up of. Two decent and three bad teams. Take the combined record and slot them all based upon the average. Then bucket and/or do a percentage from there. It wouldn't be hard. If it comes to it, I volunteer to do the math. ibx, Can you run the math on the 5 guys based on last year's record and post it here. I think Niall's idea of random draw within 3 groups of 8 is the best idea I've heard and where I will vote, but I'd like to see the math. rg
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Post by Longshanks on May 1, 2020 18:31:34 GMT -5
I don't think the groups of 8 is a good idea. That means team 8, 16, 24 can only go up and team 9, 17 can only go down. What about figure out a way that you can only drop a max of 8 slots or only go up a max of 8 slots.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 18:41:58 GMT -5
I don't think the groups of 8 is a good idea. That means team 8, 16, 24 can only go up and team 9, 17 can only go down. What about figure out a way that you can only drop a max of 8 slots or only go up a max of 8 slots. That sounds extremely complicated and there is not possible solution that won't necessarily negatively impact some owners.
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Post by Ryan G. on May 1, 2020 18:54:02 GMT -5
We know the combined records of the five teams their teams are made up of. Two decent and three bad teams. Take the combined record and slot them all based upon the average. Then bucket and/or do a percentage from there. It wouldn't be hard. If it comes to it, I volunteer to do the math. ibx, Can you run the math on the 5 guys based on last year's record and post it here. I think Niall's idea of random draw within 3 groups of 8 is the best idea I've heard and where I will vote, but I'd like to see the math. rg I actually just went and looked it up. If you total up the records of the 5 teams that left it is 55-74-1 with an average record of 11-14.8-.2 rounded to 11-15 for all 5 teams. That presents an issue for the buckets-of-8 idea because that means that those 5 teams would be spread across the the 1-8 and 9-16 buckets. rg
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Post by Longshanks on May 1, 2020 19:02:27 GMT -5
Here is how you do it: - randomly draw the 5 new teams to figure out where they place within those 5 spots at the 11-15 record - randomly select a team for the #1 draft spot from teams 1-8 - after that pick, add in team 9 and randomly pick another team for the #2 draft spot - keep adding in the next team and make the next pick - this will guarantee that no team moves up more than 8 slots - if a team has been in the random drawing 8 times, then they automatically get the next slot - for example if team 1 is still in the drawing after 8 picks, then they automatically get the #9 slot - this will guarantee that no team drops more than 8 slot - then snake that order for rounds 2, 4, 6, 8
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