Post by Defector on May 14, 2023 15:49:10 GMT -5
Ladies and Gentlem...
Nevermind, there are no gentlemen in TOCOL.
Allow me to introduce the TOCOL Draft ANALyzer v2.0, now complete with ChatGPT capability. In addition to the new generative AI capability that was incorporated, the value baselines were revamped to use a new mechanism, rather than the outdated FBG rookie slot values. Given how broken the ANALyzer obviously has been in previous seasons, I am confident in saying that these enhancements will yield significant improvements. Which is to say, it doesn't do much more than version 1.0 did, but it does it with much blockier volumes of text and possibly more accurately? Only time will tell.
This year, the ANALyzer was again asked to rank the acumen of the drafters themselves (i.e. whose draft produced the most surplus value over expectation based upon draft position), just as in past years. However, a new addition for 2023 is the ranking of the classes as a whole (meaning who added the most overall talent to their roster, regardless of draft position).
Without further ado, let's get to the results.
Most Valuable Drafts (which owners created the most surplus value versus their expected draft results)
1. Password is Taco (A+)
After awarding my class a pedestrian C- last season, the ANALyzer views my 2023 rookie draft much more favorably. And the ANALyzer doesn't even credit me for maneuvering to acquire 3 additional first round picks in 2024. Much of this group's value is generated by my first two selections - RB Devon Achane and WR Jalin Hyatt. By adding both of these players about a round later than expected, the ANALyzer determined that both were valuable selections. Of course, I feel relatively confident that neither of them is a very good dynasty prospect, so the ANALyzer is already off to its typical horrific start.
2. HoPifornication (A-)
The ANALyzer awarded HoP an A- for his draft despite considering his first round pick (Quentin Johnston) to be one of the five worst selections of the first round. He rebounded a bit when he selected Michael Mayer in the second; however, this ranking is predominantly based upon HoP's selections of Kayshon Boutte and Sean Tucker, two players who both saw their NFL draft stock decline significantly from the start of the year until the draft (Tucker wasn't even drafted). If a high ranking for your draft acumen is contingent upon an Undrafted Free Agent Running Back, you can probably assume that (A) your ranking is much too high and (B) yup this thing is broken again.
3. Drinking Problem (B+)
Even without this solid grade, Stryker should consider this draft a success since some of us now know his name. As a matter of fact, it would not surprise me if he is more proud of that than he is his 2022 TOCOL Championship tbh. As for this B+ grade, no doubt Stroud being on the board at 1.14 helped. However, the fact that the only other selection that yielded any real value was RB Israel Abanikanda, who will almost certainly be a backup to Breece Hall in NY, is once more proof that the ANALyzer is just not very good at its job.
4. Alcoholic Haze (B+)
Apparently whenever Darky remembered we had a draft underway, he made solid selections. Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round and Darnell Washington in the 4th round were two picks that yielded very solid value. Of course, Darky needed them to in order to overcome the cringeworthy selection of Will Levis at pick 18 overall. On Defense, the ANALyzer was high on his selection of CB Devon Witherspoon but not his selections of Pappoe or Harrison, both of which I thought were really solid values. Of course, my own personal grade for Darky's class is a solid A+ for taking Darnell Washington, who probably should have been pick 1.02, right behind Stetson Bennett at 1.01.
5. Riding in my Lambeau (B-)
A solid rebound for the guy whose name I do not know (and now that we all know Stryker's, this is the only one I don't. Assuming Yoda is still Yoda?)... after a rough draft last year, headlined by taking a former Florida Gator in round 1, new guy rebounded nicely to a B- class this year, despite taking a LB 11th overall. Campbell should be a fantasy star. The problem is that at 1.11 he HAS to be a star LB just to yield expected value for that slot. Taking Josh Downs and Zach Evans in the late second and third rounds were very nice picks and per the ANALyzer were the only picks he made that did not generate negative value.
6. The Foos Fighters (C+)
With no first or second round selection, Foos did about as well as could probably be expected. While neither the ANALyzer nor any of his league mates will ever understand his decision to select a low production DT in round 3, his potential steal of Marvin Mims with his other third round pick almost makes up for it. Otherwise, the remainder of his draft might as well have been auto-generated using MFL ADP.
7. De-Cleater (C-)
Another class where almost every selection followed very closely to ADP. De-Cleater had no first or fifth round pick and his selections in rounds 2, 3, 4, and 6 all yielded negative value. But hey at least his last two selections yielded minimal positive value to offset all of that. Honestly, this grade probably says more about the rest of the classes than anything De-Cleater did well or poorly during this draft.
8. Pittsburgh Plunge (D+)
This is a strange grade, and one that, while maybe understandable, I certainly do not agree with at all. Unlike De-Cleater above, Plunge generated positive surplus value with 5 of his 9 selections but generated significant negative value with two of them - Jonathan Mingo and Noah Sewell. In both cases, the ANALyzer viewed the picks as significant reaches. Personally, I am much higher on both of those players than the general populace, so I don't fault Plunge at all. Mingo in particular has traits that appear to be "best in class" for this receiver class, as well as a great landing spot and one who selected him well before expectation. On the other end of the spectrum, Hendon Hooker, Deuce Vaughn, and Jordan Addison were all considered solid to exceptional values where Plunge selected them.
9. Brain Surgeons (D+)
You want proof that the ANALyzer remains broken? This class received the same grade as Plunge's above, despite not having a single selection that yielded positive value. Nor including a single selection prior to the fifth round. Drake continues to assemble unassuming, uninspiring classes every year. Yet every year he is a contender for the championship, so maybe there is something to NOT reaching for players all over the board? Or, in this cases, maybe the lesson learned is that rookie selections are overrated as a whole. Trade your picks for established players and then just don't reach during the draft... voila, title contender.
10. Nebraska Cornholers (D)
Despite adding what will certainly be one of the most productive classes in TOCOL this year, Bronco Billy failed to generate the surplus value he might have had he not reached on 4 of his 7 picks among the top 45 overall slots. And this grade is despite him making the single most valuable pick in the draft when Yoda (?) inexplicably passed over Bijan Robinson at 1.01 and allowed BB to slide up to 1.02 to select him. If Robinson had been the only pick BB had made, he would have ended up with an A- for his class. However, by reaching for players such as Zach Charbonnet, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Michael Wilson, Billy cannibalized all of the value that the Robinson pick generated and much, much more. While the class should be outstanding, the ANALyzer views it as one that should have been significantly better than it is.
11. Oregon Reign (D)
Oregon selected about half as many player as Nebraska did, and did not benefit from Robinson falling in their proverbial laps at 1.02, yet still received the same grade. Given that the grade is a D, it should not surprise anyone to learn that GM did not receive this grade due to making a series of shrewd draft picks. As a matter of fact, the only pick that yielded positive value was QB Aiden O'Connell in the 8th round. Not to harp on it, but this should be all you need to know to realize that Bronco Billy really did blow his opportunity with those 7 high draft picks, at least per the ANALyzer's assessment.
12. Gringo (D-)
From "best in show" in 2022, to a D- this year. Strangely, the ANALyzer graded Tyjae Spears as a huge reach; but it was essentially neutral on Gringo's other selections. I personally think that there is a chance Spears turns out to be a steal at 1.13, although I understand the concerns, including the risk with his knee. I think the Nolan Smith (duh!) , Ojulari, and Strange picks were all solid, even if the ANALyzer doesn't quite agree. And I wondered who would take Mapu as I have seen him listed as a DE, LB or S on different sites so I am not sure he really even exists. Perhaps he's like that Bryan Kopack guy from last year and Kiper or McShay just made him up?
13. TTAC* (D-)
Question: How do you have 5 of the first 26 picks (and 7 of the first 37) and receive a D- for your draft? Answer: Be TTAC, that's how. After he shockingly received a B- grade last year, TTAC returns to his comfort zone, near the bottom of the standings. Honestly, unlike most years this grade is not based on huge misses. Rather, his class is comprised almost entirely of slight reaches, outside of his RB selections. At RB, he returned a bit of value with Gibbs at 1.03, but that was solely due to the unfathomable pick at 1.01. And he reached for both Johnson and Brown, per the ANALyzer, although personally I like both backs quite a bit more than the consensus on them. Everywhere else, he generally made solid picks that were at worst slight reaches based upon draft slots. Given that it's TTAC, I feel like I should hate his class much more than I do. Of course, based on the fact that he did have 5 of the first 26 picks, I should probably like his class a bit more than I do also. *SIGH*
* after hearing the story behind his new name, I refuse to type that name anywhere ever
14. Revenge with a fifth (F----------------)
Honestly, if there was a grade below F, this class would receive it. Perhaps a Z is more apropos? The selection of Bryce Young at 1.01 might be the singularly least valuable selection ever made in a TOCOL draft. And given the collective (past and present) owners of this league, that is saying A LOT. Personally, I like Bryce Young. But a pocket QB in TOCOL is worth selecting around pick 1.08 (See Lawrence, Trevor or Burrow, Joe) and honestly as the Burrow owner, I can assure you that nobody would have traded me a pick anywhere close to 1.01 straight up for him, despite him being a top 5 Dynasty QB today. That is just not how value works. In a 14-team, 1 QB league, pocket passing QBs just aren't overly valuable. There are plenty of them and even the elite ones are not worth top 5 Rookie picks in basically any draft. The ANALyzer correctly placed the value of selecting Young at 1.01 as -4396 points. To put that in perspective, the 1.14 pick is worth approximately 4300 points. So selecting Young at 1.01 was about the equivalent of just giving away the 14th overall pick for nothing in return. In addition to the Young pick, the ANALyzer also felt that Yoda (?) reached on his picks of TE LaPorta and LB Overshown, although I personally think both were decent enough selections. Conversely, Yoda received solid marks for his selections of Tank Dell and former Georgia Bulldawg Kenny McIntosh. I almost gave him an A- just for selecting Kenny Mac, but the reality is he could have selected 7 former UGA players and he still would have earned an F for using 1.01 on a pocket passer QB.
Class Rankings (which classes are adding the most talent to their teams' rosters)
1. Nebraska Cornholers
Nebraska had 5 of the top 21 and 6 of the top 31 selections in the draft. And Bijan Robinson inexplicably was on the board for him at 1.02. Robinson, Charbonnet and Miller is a solid RB class, and he added two lottery ticket RBs in the 8th also. Anderson has a chance to be a top 2 defensive player in this class and was solid value at 2.03. Reed has outstanding potential, even if he might have been reach where he was selected, especially in relation to similar WRs. And both TEs are intriguing as well. Overall, a rebuilding team came away with potentially a new starting RB duo, starting TE, elite pass rusher, and some options at WR. Not a bad haul.
2. TTAC
The other team that had an array of early selections. It was a gutsy move to trade back from 1.02 with Bijan available, and as I have said repeatedly, that feels like a trade that will have a clear-cut winner and loser, eventually. That said, Gibbs was a nice fallback option at 1.03. And TTAC added the ultimate boom-or-bust QB prospect, probably of all time, in the first round also. With his running ability, Richardson should have solid fantasy value even if his passing doesn't ever fully develop. If it does, home run pick! His other picks appear to have been driven by opportunity more than talent, although all of them seem to be solid to good prospects. Not shocking since all were among the first 37 selections in the TOCOL draft.
3. Revenge with a fifth
Had the first overall pick in a class with a potential generational RB, finished with the 3rd best class. That hurts. Still, Young, LaPorta and Carter could be solid FF starters for him. Has a few lottery tickets as well. Had he taken Bijan, then moved for Stroud in the late first, this might have been a home run draft class. Instead it is a solid group of additions for the league's least active owner.
4. Pittsburgh Plunge
Three first rounders helps. No second or third offsets that just a bit, however, which is why this class ranks 3rd and not higher. Personally, I believe Plunge managed to land 3 of the top 8 players in this class with picks 6, 9, and 12. Well done. Both WRs project to be FF starters within a year and Kincaid has a chance to be a top-end TE1. Hooker is one of the better QB stashes in a while. And I am not sure what to think about a team drafting a Punter two years in a row, even though I know the circumstances that led him to do so.
5. HoPifornication
Relative to his draft slots, this is likely the best class overall according to the ANALyzer (see the #2 rank in surplus value above, combined with this rank in overall value of the adds)... that said, personally, I am much less enthused by this class than the ANALyzer or the general populace is. Lots of volume, especially in rounds 5-7. I just don't love the players that were selected. I like Johnston and Mayer just fine. However, I don't project Murphy, Boutte, Hutchinson, Hull, etc. as significant FF contributors. I prefer his last 4 selections to the 7 he made between rounds 3 and 6.
6. Alcoholic Haze
Other than the Levis pick, which I thought was okay at 2.04 but not great, Darky selected players that I generally liked more than the ANALyzer does. JSN, Washington, Williams, Witherspoon and Harrison were all players I liked in this class relative to their ADP. And the Auburn duo are good football players, even if their school sucks and their FF value is not great.
7. Riding in my Lambeau
Good, not great, picks throughout. I think Campbell will be a big FF scorer, although I preferred other players at 1.11 based on the board. Downs, Evans, Martin and Hall have potential also. Again good, not great.
8. Gringo
I like his first two selections, and his two DEs should yield at least 1 contributor between them. Not sure anyone he selected will ever start many games for him on offense though. And I am convinced Mapu is not a real player.
9. Drinking Problem
Similar to Gringo's class above, this class hinges upon the defensive players... and CJ Stroud. Stroud might well be good enough to break the Ohio State QB slump (Fields will likely do it next season but based on his passing IMO he has not yet). Both LBs should quickly become contributors. I don't see many points among the other offensive selections he made though.
10. Oregon Reign
He took Stetson Bennett at 4.07. Bennett should have gone 1.01. The ANALyzer is definitely broken and I now declare this the best draft class of the TOCOL 2023 draft. Otherwise, not having picks in rounds 2 or 3 limited the upside of the rest of the class. And I have never heard of Ventrell Miller. Seriously, my draft list had his name as Vontrell Miller. I presume these are the same person?
11. Password is Taco
Not picking until 2.08 doesn't help my case. And no credit is given for the 2024 picks that I acquired. The reality is that none of the offensive guys I drafted projects as a fantasy starter during their careers. I am hopeful that Kancey is a pass rushing DT since I missed out on Carter. Actually the story of my draft, other than acquiring 2024 draft capital, was missing on almost all of the guys I was targeting. And my targets were realistic based on ADP. Too many picks in this year's TOCOL draft just deviated from ADP too much to allow me to select those targets. Oh well. With 4 first rounders in a 2024 class that I consider much stronger than this one, I am already looking forward to next year. Sort of like being a South Carolina Gamecock fan "wait until next year"...
12. The Foos Fighters
No first or second round pick, yet Foos still finished ranked higher in overall class value than 2 other owners. Ouch! Also, he did so despite making perhaps the 2nd worst pick of the draft when he took a lane clogging DT at 3.07. Good thing for him he got a potential steal in Marvin Mims and drafted a couple of solid lottery tickets with McBride and Ibrahim. Also, he drafted the best name in the class, good ole To'oTo'o! Too bad that dude is a bad football player, but a great name nonetheless!
13. De-Cleater
LOL I only just now realized he selected nothing but TEs and DEs with his 6 picks in this draft. Do we think he realizes he did that? Was it a strategy? Given that he appears to be a team in need of rebuilding, not sure it was a good strategy if it was in deed strategic. "It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for him" seems especially fitting in this case. (HINT: It won't!)
14. Brain Surgeons
Well, I already mentioned that he had no picks until round 5. And that the selections he did make were uninspired. But hey at least he got the 2023 Speed Score champion, even if said player did go undrafted. And unlike the guys who just took middle-of-the-road Defensive players in the late rounds, he did use all 4 of his picks on lottery tickets. So there is that...
Nevermind, there are no gentlemen in TOCOL.
Allow me to introduce the TOCOL Draft ANALyzer v2.0, now complete with ChatGPT capability. In addition to the new generative AI capability that was incorporated, the value baselines were revamped to use a new mechanism, rather than the outdated FBG rookie slot values. Given how broken the ANALyzer obviously has been in previous seasons, I am confident in saying that these enhancements will yield significant improvements. Which is to say, it doesn't do much more than version 1.0 did, but it does it with much blockier volumes of text and possibly more accurately? Only time will tell.
This year, the ANALyzer was again asked to rank the acumen of the drafters themselves (i.e. whose draft produced the most surplus value over expectation based upon draft position), just as in past years. However, a new addition for 2023 is the ranking of the classes as a whole (meaning who added the most overall talent to their roster, regardless of draft position).
Without further ado, let's get to the results.
Most Valuable Drafts (which owners created the most surplus value versus their expected draft results)
1. Password is Taco (A+)
After awarding my class a pedestrian C- last season, the ANALyzer views my 2023 rookie draft much more favorably. And the ANALyzer doesn't even credit me for maneuvering to acquire 3 additional first round picks in 2024. Much of this group's value is generated by my first two selections - RB Devon Achane and WR Jalin Hyatt. By adding both of these players about a round later than expected, the ANALyzer determined that both were valuable selections. Of course, I feel relatively confident that neither of them is a very good dynasty prospect, so the ANALyzer is already off to its typical horrific start.
2. HoPifornication (A-)
The ANALyzer awarded HoP an A- for his draft despite considering his first round pick (Quentin Johnston) to be one of the five worst selections of the first round. He rebounded a bit when he selected Michael Mayer in the second; however, this ranking is predominantly based upon HoP's selections of Kayshon Boutte and Sean Tucker, two players who both saw their NFL draft stock decline significantly from the start of the year until the draft (Tucker wasn't even drafted). If a high ranking for your draft acumen is contingent upon an Undrafted Free Agent Running Back, you can probably assume that (A) your ranking is much too high and (B) yup this thing is broken again.
3. Drinking Problem (B+)
Even without this solid grade, Stryker should consider this draft a success since some of us now know his name. As a matter of fact, it would not surprise me if he is more proud of that than he is his 2022 TOCOL Championship tbh. As for this B+ grade, no doubt Stroud being on the board at 1.14 helped. However, the fact that the only other selection that yielded any real value was RB Israel Abanikanda, who will almost certainly be a backup to Breece Hall in NY, is once more proof that the ANALyzer is just not very good at its job.
4. Alcoholic Haze (B+)
Apparently whenever Darky remembered we had a draft underway, he made solid selections. Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round and Darnell Washington in the 4th round were two picks that yielded very solid value. Of course, Darky needed them to in order to overcome the cringeworthy selection of Will Levis at pick 18 overall. On Defense, the ANALyzer was high on his selection of CB Devon Witherspoon but not his selections of Pappoe or Harrison, both of which I thought were really solid values. Of course, my own personal grade for Darky's class is a solid A+ for taking Darnell Washington, who probably should have been pick 1.02, right behind Stetson Bennett at 1.01.
5. Riding in my Lambeau (B-)
A solid rebound for the guy whose name I do not know (and now that we all know Stryker's, this is the only one I don't. Assuming Yoda is still Yoda?)... after a rough draft last year, headlined by taking a former Florida Gator in round 1, new guy rebounded nicely to a B- class this year, despite taking a LB 11th overall. Campbell should be a fantasy star. The problem is that at 1.11 he HAS to be a star LB just to yield expected value for that slot. Taking Josh Downs and Zach Evans in the late second and third rounds were very nice picks and per the ANALyzer were the only picks he made that did not generate negative value.
6. The Foos Fighters (C+)
With no first or second round selection, Foos did about as well as could probably be expected. While neither the ANALyzer nor any of his league mates will ever understand his decision to select a low production DT in round 3, his potential steal of Marvin Mims with his other third round pick almost makes up for it. Otherwise, the remainder of his draft might as well have been auto-generated using MFL ADP.
7. De-Cleater (C-)
Another class where almost every selection followed very closely to ADP. De-Cleater had no first or fifth round pick and his selections in rounds 2, 3, 4, and 6 all yielded negative value. But hey at least his last two selections yielded minimal positive value to offset all of that. Honestly, this grade probably says more about the rest of the classes than anything De-Cleater did well or poorly during this draft.
8. Pittsburgh Plunge (D+)
This is a strange grade, and one that, while maybe understandable, I certainly do not agree with at all. Unlike De-Cleater above, Plunge generated positive surplus value with 5 of his 9 selections but generated significant negative value with two of them - Jonathan Mingo and Noah Sewell. In both cases, the ANALyzer viewed the picks as significant reaches. Personally, I am much higher on both of those players than the general populace, so I don't fault Plunge at all. Mingo in particular has traits that appear to be "best in class" for this receiver class, as well as a great landing spot and one who selected him well before expectation. On the other end of the spectrum, Hendon Hooker, Deuce Vaughn, and Jordan Addison were all considered solid to exceptional values where Plunge selected them.
9. Brain Surgeons (D+)
You want proof that the ANALyzer remains broken? This class received the same grade as Plunge's above, despite not having a single selection that yielded positive value. Nor including a single selection prior to the fifth round. Drake continues to assemble unassuming, uninspiring classes every year. Yet every year he is a contender for the championship, so maybe there is something to NOT reaching for players all over the board? Or, in this cases, maybe the lesson learned is that rookie selections are overrated as a whole. Trade your picks for established players and then just don't reach during the draft... voila, title contender.
10. Nebraska Cornholers (D)
Despite adding what will certainly be one of the most productive classes in TOCOL this year, Bronco Billy failed to generate the surplus value he might have had he not reached on 4 of his 7 picks among the top 45 overall slots. And this grade is despite him making the single most valuable pick in the draft when Yoda (?) inexplicably passed over Bijan Robinson at 1.01 and allowed BB to slide up to 1.02 to select him. If Robinson had been the only pick BB had made, he would have ended up with an A- for his class. However, by reaching for players such as Zach Charbonnet, Jayden Reed, Tucker Kraft, and Michael Wilson, Billy cannibalized all of the value that the Robinson pick generated and much, much more. While the class should be outstanding, the ANALyzer views it as one that should have been significantly better than it is.
11. Oregon Reign (D)
Oregon selected about half as many player as Nebraska did, and did not benefit from Robinson falling in their proverbial laps at 1.02, yet still received the same grade. Given that the grade is a D, it should not surprise anyone to learn that GM did not receive this grade due to making a series of shrewd draft picks. As a matter of fact, the only pick that yielded positive value was QB Aiden O'Connell in the 8th round. Not to harp on it, but this should be all you need to know to realize that Bronco Billy really did blow his opportunity with those 7 high draft picks, at least per the ANALyzer's assessment.
12. Gringo (D-)
From "best in show" in 2022, to a D- this year. Strangely, the ANALyzer graded Tyjae Spears as a huge reach; but it was essentially neutral on Gringo's other selections. I personally think that there is a chance Spears turns out to be a steal at 1.13, although I understand the concerns, including the risk with his knee. I think the Nolan Smith (duh!) , Ojulari, and Strange picks were all solid, even if the ANALyzer doesn't quite agree. And I wondered who would take Mapu as I have seen him listed as a DE, LB or S on different sites so I am not sure he really even exists. Perhaps he's like that Bryan Kopack guy from last year and Kiper or McShay just made him up?
13. TTAC* (D-)
Question: How do you have 5 of the first 26 picks (and 7 of the first 37) and receive a D- for your draft? Answer: Be TTAC, that's how. After he shockingly received a B- grade last year, TTAC returns to his comfort zone, near the bottom of the standings. Honestly, unlike most years this grade is not based on huge misses. Rather, his class is comprised almost entirely of slight reaches, outside of his RB selections. At RB, he returned a bit of value with Gibbs at 1.03, but that was solely due to the unfathomable pick at 1.01. And he reached for both Johnson and Brown, per the ANALyzer, although personally I like both backs quite a bit more than the consensus on them. Everywhere else, he generally made solid picks that were at worst slight reaches based upon draft slots. Given that it's TTAC, I feel like I should hate his class much more than I do. Of course, based on the fact that he did have 5 of the first 26 picks, I should probably like his class a bit more than I do also. *SIGH*
* after hearing the story behind his new name, I refuse to type that name anywhere ever
14. Revenge with a fifth (F----------------)
Honestly, if there was a grade below F, this class would receive it. Perhaps a Z is more apropos? The selection of Bryce Young at 1.01 might be the singularly least valuable selection ever made in a TOCOL draft. And given the collective (past and present) owners of this league, that is saying A LOT. Personally, I like Bryce Young. But a pocket QB in TOCOL is worth selecting around pick 1.08 (See Lawrence, Trevor or Burrow, Joe) and honestly as the Burrow owner, I can assure you that nobody would have traded me a pick anywhere close to 1.01 straight up for him, despite him being a top 5 Dynasty QB today. That is just not how value works. In a 14-team, 1 QB league, pocket passing QBs just aren't overly valuable. There are plenty of them and even the elite ones are not worth top 5 Rookie picks in basically any draft. The ANALyzer correctly placed the value of selecting Young at 1.01 as -4396 points. To put that in perspective, the 1.14 pick is worth approximately 4300 points. So selecting Young at 1.01 was about the equivalent of just giving away the 14th overall pick for nothing in return. In addition to the Young pick, the ANALyzer also felt that Yoda (?) reached on his picks of TE LaPorta and LB Overshown, although I personally think both were decent enough selections. Conversely, Yoda received solid marks for his selections of Tank Dell and former Georgia Bulldawg Kenny McIntosh. I almost gave him an A- just for selecting Kenny Mac, but the reality is he could have selected 7 former UGA players and he still would have earned an F for using 1.01 on a pocket passer QB.
Class Rankings (which classes are adding the most talent to their teams' rosters)
1. Nebraska Cornholers
Nebraska had 5 of the top 21 and 6 of the top 31 selections in the draft. And Bijan Robinson inexplicably was on the board for him at 1.02. Robinson, Charbonnet and Miller is a solid RB class, and he added two lottery ticket RBs in the 8th also. Anderson has a chance to be a top 2 defensive player in this class and was solid value at 2.03. Reed has outstanding potential, even if he might have been reach where he was selected, especially in relation to similar WRs. And both TEs are intriguing as well. Overall, a rebuilding team came away with potentially a new starting RB duo, starting TE, elite pass rusher, and some options at WR. Not a bad haul.
2. TTAC
The other team that had an array of early selections. It was a gutsy move to trade back from 1.02 with Bijan available, and as I have said repeatedly, that feels like a trade that will have a clear-cut winner and loser, eventually. That said, Gibbs was a nice fallback option at 1.03. And TTAC added the ultimate boom-or-bust QB prospect, probably of all time, in the first round also. With his running ability, Richardson should have solid fantasy value even if his passing doesn't ever fully develop. If it does, home run pick! His other picks appear to have been driven by opportunity more than talent, although all of them seem to be solid to good prospects. Not shocking since all were among the first 37 selections in the TOCOL draft.
3. Revenge with a fifth
Had the first overall pick in a class with a potential generational RB, finished with the 3rd best class. That hurts. Still, Young, LaPorta and Carter could be solid FF starters for him. Has a few lottery tickets as well. Had he taken Bijan, then moved for Stroud in the late first, this might have been a home run draft class. Instead it is a solid group of additions for the league's least active owner.
4. Pittsburgh Plunge
Three first rounders helps. No second or third offsets that just a bit, however, which is why this class ranks 3rd and not higher. Personally, I believe Plunge managed to land 3 of the top 8 players in this class with picks 6, 9, and 12. Well done. Both WRs project to be FF starters within a year and Kincaid has a chance to be a top-end TE1. Hooker is one of the better QB stashes in a while. And I am not sure what to think about a team drafting a Punter two years in a row, even though I know the circumstances that led him to do so.
5. HoPifornication
Relative to his draft slots, this is likely the best class overall according to the ANALyzer (see the #2 rank in surplus value above, combined with this rank in overall value of the adds)... that said, personally, I am much less enthused by this class than the ANALyzer or the general populace is. Lots of volume, especially in rounds 5-7. I just don't love the players that were selected. I like Johnston and Mayer just fine. However, I don't project Murphy, Boutte, Hutchinson, Hull, etc. as significant FF contributors. I prefer his last 4 selections to the 7 he made between rounds 3 and 6.
6. Alcoholic Haze
Other than the Levis pick, which I thought was okay at 2.04 but not great, Darky selected players that I generally liked more than the ANALyzer does. JSN, Washington, Williams, Witherspoon and Harrison were all players I liked in this class relative to their ADP. And the Auburn duo are good football players, even if their school sucks and their FF value is not great.
7. Riding in my Lambeau
Good, not great, picks throughout. I think Campbell will be a big FF scorer, although I preferred other players at 1.11 based on the board. Downs, Evans, Martin and Hall have potential also. Again good, not great.
8. Gringo
I like his first two selections, and his two DEs should yield at least 1 contributor between them. Not sure anyone he selected will ever start many games for him on offense though. And I am convinced Mapu is not a real player.
9. Drinking Problem
Similar to Gringo's class above, this class hinges upon the defensive players... and CJ Stroud. Stroud might well be good enough to break the Ohio State QB slump (Fields will likely do it next season but based on his passing IMO he has not yet). Both LBs should quickly become contributors. I don't see many points among the other offensive selections he made though.
10. Oregon Reign
He took Stetson Bennett at 4.07. Bennett should have gone 1.01. The ANALyzer is definitely broken and I now declare this the best draft class of the TOCOL 2023 draft. Otherwise, not having picks in rounds 2 or 3 limited the upside of the rest of the class. And I have never heard of Ventrell Miller. Seriously, my draft list had his name as Vontrell Miller. I presume these are the same person?
11. Password is Taco
Not picking until 2.08 doesn't help my case. And no credit is given for the 2024 picks that I acquired. The reality is that none of the offensive guys I drafted projects as a fantasy starter during their careers. I am hopeful that Kancey is a pass rushing DT since I missed out on Carter. Actually the story of my draft, other than acquiring 2024 draft capital, was missing on almost all of the guys I was targeting. And my targets were realistic based on ADP. Too many picks in this year's TOCOL draft just deviated from ADP too much to allow me to select those targets. Oh well. With 4 first rounders in a 2024 class that I consider much stronger than this one, I am already looking forward to next year. Sort of like being a South Carolina Gamecock fan "wait until next year"...
12. The Foos Fighters
No first or second round pick, yet Foos still finished ranked higher in overall class value than 2 other owners. Ouch! Also, he did so despite making perhaps the 2nd worst pick of the draft when he took a lane clogging DT at 3.07. Good thing for him he got a potential steal in Marvin Mims and drafted a couple of solid lottery tickets with McBride and Ibrahim. Also, he drafted the best name in the class, good ole To'oTo'o! Too bad that dude is a bad football player, but a great name nonetheless!
13. De-Cleater
LOL I only just now realized he selected nothing but TEs and DEs with his 6 picks in this draft. Do we think he realizes he did that? Was it a strategy? Given that he appears to be a team in need of rebuilding, not sure it was a good strategy if it was in deed strategic. "It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off for him" seems especially fitting in this case. (HINT: It won't!)
14. Brain Surgeons
Well, I already mentioned that he had no picks until round 5. And that the selections he did make were uninspired. But hey at least he got the 2023 Speed Score champion, even if said player did go undrafted. And unlike the guys who just took middle-of-the-road Defensive players in the late rounds, he did use all 4 of his picks on lottery tickets. So there is that...
